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CORE ▸
⚠ Directional Only — Public-Data Heuristics — Signals are heuristics derived from public Census and ACS data. Demand scores, supply pressure, and migration signals are proxies, not market-model outputs. Use alongside CoStar, CBRE, or appraisal data for final underwriting conclusions.
CRIME RISK INDEX
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NEARBY PLACES
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PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
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⚠ Convenience layer only — not underwriting-grade. Places: OpenStreetMap via Overpass API (coverage varies by market). Transit: OpenStreetMap. Drive times: ~30mph avg estimate only. OSM tagging is community-sourced and may be incomplete.
Calculation Audit Table
Every metric · every formula · every limitation| Metric | Source | Vintage | Geography | Formula | Cap | Fallback / Exception | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population & Households | |||||||
| Population (current) | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | Σ(B01003_001E × w) | — | None — BG-only | Survey estimate from ACS |
| Population 2020 (base) | Decennial 2020 | PL94 | Block Group | Σ(P1_001N × w) | — | None — exact count | Point-in-time 4/1/2020 |
| Pop CAGR | Dec 2010 SF1 + Dec 2020 PL94 | 2010→2020 | Block Group | (pop₂₀/pop₁₀)^(1/10)−1 | None | N/A if matched history is insufficient | Pre-2020 migration not captured |
| Pop 2025 / 2030 | Dec 2020 + CAGR | Projected | Ring | base×(1+r)⁵ / ×(1+r)¹⁰ | None | Suppressed if N/A | Trend only — no cycle adj. |
| Households | Same as Population | Same | Block Group | H003002 / H1_002N | None | None | Occupied units only |
| Income & Home Value | |||||||
| Median HH Income (current) | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | Σ(B19013_001E×HH) / Σ(HH) | — | BG-only · ACS 2024 estimate shown | Approx. ring median (BG-weighted avg) |
| Income CAGR | ACS 2019 + ACS 2024 | 2019→2024 | Block Group | (inc₂₄/inc₁₉)^(1/5)−1 | None | N/A if matched history is insufficient | 2-yr window = noisy |
| Income 2025 / 2030 | ACS 2024 + CAGR | Projected | Ring | base×(1+r)¹ / ×(1+r)⁶ | None | Suppressed if N/A | Directional only |
| Median Home Value (current) | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | Σ(B25077_001E×Own) / Σ(Own) | — | BG-only | Not subject property value |
| Home Value CAGR | ACS 2019 + ACS 2024 | 2019→2024 | Block Group | (hv₂₄/hv₁₉)^(1/5)−1 | None | N/A if matched history is insufficient | 2-yr window = noisy |
| Housing Characteristics | |||||||
| Vacancy Rate | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | B25002_003 / B25002_001 | — | None | All housing units — NOT apt-only |
| Poverty Rate | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | B17001_002 / B17001_001 | — | ⚠ Tract fallback if BG suppressed | Suppression common in small BGs |
| Rent / Owner Occ. | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | B25003_003 / B25003_001 | — | None | Survey tenure, not actual leases |
| Contextual Layers (not ring-specific) | |||||||
| Building Permits | Census BPS | Annual | County | — | — | Removed — not rendered | Fetch removed in v8.0 |
| Fair Market Rent (FMR) | HUD FMR | Annual | HUD Metro Area | — | — | Removed — not rendered | Fetch removed in v8.0 |
| Nearby Places | OpenStreetMap | Community-maintained | Proximity | straight-line ~30mph est. | — | Convenience layer only | Coverage varies · not UW-grade |
| Rent Burden (30%+) | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | Σ(B25070_007-010×w) / Σ(B25070_001×w) | None | % of renter HH paying 30%+ of income on rent · B25070 · Standard HUD cost-burden threshold | |
| Avg Commute Time | ACS 2024 5-yr | 2020–2024 | Block Group | Σ(bracket_count×midpoint×w) / Σ(workers×w) | None | Weighted avg travel time for workers 16+ · B08303 · Bracket midpoints 2.5–105 min | |
| Building Permits | Census BPS | 2022–2024 | County | UNITS (total), UNITS1 (SF), UNITS5 (MF 5+) | None | Annual units authorized by permit · timeseries/bps API · County level only · Supply pipeline signal | |
Spatial Method: Monte Carlo Polygon Intersection
Engine:
Samples: 64 stratified points per BG bounding box
Test: pointInPolygon (ray-casting) × point-in-circle
Weight: fraction of points inside both polygon AND ring
Fallback: centroid-distance if TIGER polygon fetch fails (rare)
Accuracy: ~±3% per BG; ±1–2% at ring level with ≥10 BGs
Rings: Cumulative disks — 3mi includes all within 3mi
computeIntersectionWeights()Samples: 64 stratified points per BG bounding box
Test: pointInPolygon (ray-casting) × point-in-circle
Weight: fraction of points inside both polygon AND ring
Fallback: centroid-distance if TIGER polygon fetch fails (rare)
Accuracy: ~±3% per BG; ±1–2% at ring level with ≥10 BGs
Rings: Cumulative disks — 3mi includes all within 3mi
Coverage & Fallback Rules
Coverage threshold: ≥60% of ring pop must match BG data
Below threshold: N/A shown — no county/state substitution
Small ring: ⚠ warning when <5 BGs contribute
Poverty exception: Tract fallback when BG B17001 suppressed
Projection caps: None applied — raw CAGRs used directly in projections
Data quality: ⚠ flag shown in diagnostics when CAGR exceeds historical norms (>10%/yr)
No county fallback for any demographic metric
Below threshold: N/A shown — no county/state substitution
Small ring: ⚠ warning when <5 BGs contribute
Poverty exception: Tract fallback when BG B17001 suppressed
Projection caps: None applied — raw CAGRs used directly in projections
Data quality: ⚠ flag shown in diagnostics when CAGR exceeds historical norms (>10%/yr)
No county fallback for any demographic metric
🗺 FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS — Planned modules (require additional data sources)
📈 Rent Growth Trends
Historical asking rents by unit type. Requires CoStar or RealPage API.
🏗 Supply Pipeline
Units under construction + permitted. Requires CoStar or Yardi.
🧭 Migration Flows
In/out migration by origin. IRS SOI (county-level) or Placer.ai.
💼 Employment Growth
Job growth by sector. BLS QCEW or LEHD Origin-Destination (public).
📍 Parcel & Zoning
Parcel boundaries + zoning. No national source — varies by municipality.
🏘 Transaction Comps
Recent sales comps. Requires ATTOM, CoreLogic, or county assessor data.
All current data uses free public APIs only. These modules require paid data agreements.
All data from public APIs: US Census Bureau · OpenStreetMap · No proprietary data · No AI-generated demographics · Not investment advice.
UW Interpretation Guide
What each metric means, how to use it in underwriting, and what not to overread. Covers multifamily, retail, storage, and senior housing contexts.
👥 Population & Households
What it signals: Trade area size and demand depth. Growing population supports rental demand, retail foot traffic, and self-storage utilization.
For multifamily: Strong pop growth + HH formation = demand signal. Compare to permit activity (county proxy below) to gauge supply pressure.
For retail/storage: Rooftop count and daytime population trend matter more than median income.
⚠ Don't overread: Decennial CAGR (2010→2020) captures a full decade; it may not reflect recent post-COVID migration patterns. Use directionally.
Red flag: Negative CAGR + declining HH = demand erosion risk.
For multifamily: Strong pop growth + HH formation = demand signal. Compare to permit activity (county proxy below) to gauge supply pressure.
For retail/storage: Rooftop count and daytime population trend matter more than median income.
⚠ Don't overread: Decennial CAGR (2010→2020) captures a full decade; it may not reflect recent post-COVID migration patterns. Use directionally.
Red flag: Negative CAGR + declining HH = demand erosion risk.
💵 Median Household Income
What it signals: Rent affordability and purchasing power in the ring. Key for underwriting achievable rent levels and tenant stability.
For multifamily: Rule of thumb: target rent ≤ 30% of monthly gross HH income. A $55k median HH income ring supports ~$1,375/mo market rents.
For retail: Income influences consumer spending capacity but not foot traffic volume.
⚠ Don't overread: Approximate ring median derived from weighted block-group medians — not a true ring median. High-income and low-income pockets within a ring are averaged out.
Red flag: Income below county median by >20% signals affordability stress; income well above metro median may indicate gentrification or luxury-only demand.
For multifamily: Rule of thumb: target rent ≤ 30% of monthly gross HH income. A $55k median HH income ring supports ~$1,375/mo market rents.
For retail: Income influences consumer spending capacity but not foot traffic volume.
⚠ Don't overread: Approximate ring median derived from weighted block-group medians — not a true ring median. High-income and low-income pockets within a ring are averaged out.
Red flag: Income below county median by >20% signals affordability stress; income well above metro median may indicate gentrification or luxury-only demand.
🏠 Median Home Value
What it signals: Neighborhood affluence and housing market strength. Higher home values suggest stable owner-occupant households and often correlate with strong rental demand from high-income renters-by-choice.
For multifamily: High HV + tight vacancy = favorable rental market. Low HV + high vacancy may signal distress.
⚠ Don't overread: This is NOT a valuation metric for the subject property. It is an ACS survey-based median for owner-occupied units in the ring.
⚠ Don't overread: Home value CAGR now uses a 5-year window (ACS 2019→2024). That is more stable than a 2-year window, but it is still a historical trend extrapolation and can miss turning points.
For multifamily: High HV + tight vacancy = favorable rental market. Low HV + high vacancy may signal distress.
⚠ Don't overread: This is NOT a valuation metric for the subject property. It is an ACS survey-based median for owner-occupied units in the ring.
⚠ Don't overread: Home value CAGR now uses a 5-year window (ACS 2019→2024). That is more stable than a 2-year window, but it is still a historical trend extrapolation and can miss turning points.
📉 Poverty Rate
What it signals: Economic stress in the trade area. High poverty rates can constrain achievable rents, increase collection risk, and affect tenant mix.
For multifamily: Poverty >20% in a 1mi ring warrants scrutiny of the achievable rent levels and tenant profile.
For senior housing: Poverty rates affect Medicaid mix expectations.
⚠ Data note: Census suppresses BG-level poverty data for small populations. When that occurs, this tool uses tract-level ACS 2024 data as a fallback — flagged with ⚠ in the source column.
Red flag: Poverty rate >25% in 1mi ring, or poverty rising alongside declining income.
For multifamily: Poverty >20% in a 1mi ring warrants scrutiny of the achievable rent levels and tenant profile.
For senior housing: Poverty rates affect Medicaid mix expectations.
⚠ Data note: Census suppresses BG-level poverty data for small populations. When that occurs, this tool uses tract-level ACS 2024 data as a fallback — flagged with ⚠ in the source column.
Red flag: Poverty rate >25% in 1mi ring, or poverty rising alongside declining income.
🏚 Housing Vacancy
What it signals: Housing tightness in the ring. Low vacancy = constrained supply = favorable for rental demand.
⚠ Critical limitation: This is ACS all-housing vacancy (all unit types combined) — NOT apartment-specific vacancy. CoStar or CBRE reports are needed for true multifamily vacancy.
For multifamily: Use as a directional signal only. Low all-housing vacancy (<5%) is a positive signal; high vacancy (>10%) warrants further investigation.
For storage: All-housing vacancy is not relevant — use market-specific self-storage data.
⚠ Critical limitation: This is ACS all-housing vacancy (all unit types combined) — NOT apartment-specific vacancy. CoStar or CBRE reports are needed for true multifamily vacancy.
For multifamily: Use as a directional signal only. Low all-housing vacancy (<5%) is a positive signal; high vacancy (>10%) warrants further investigation.
For storage: All-housing vacancy is not relevant — use market-specific self-storage data.
📍 Nearby Places & Amenities
What it signals: Walkability and amenity access — relevant for multifamily lifestyle positioning and retail site selection.
⚠ Critical limitation: Data from OpenStreetMap — community-maintained, coverage varies by market. Drive times are straight-line estimates (~30 mph), not true routing.
Do not use for: Underwriting decisions; lease abstraction; retail co-tenancy analysis; any contractual claim about amenity proximity.
Use for: Directional amenity context; talking-point support; quick sanity check on walkability.
⚠ Critical limitation: Data from OpenStreetMap — community-maintained, coverage varies by market. Drive times are straight-line estimates (~30 mph), not true routing.
Do not use for: Underwriting decisions; lease abstraction; retail co-tenancy analysis; any contractual claim about amenity proximity.
Use for: Directional amenity context; talking-point support; quick sanity check on walkability.
📊 Multifamily Market Context
What this tool provides: Ring-level ACS 2024 demographics — population density, income, tenure, vacancy, and growth trends.
What it does not provide: Apartment-specific vacancy, asking rents, or supply pipeline data — those require CoStar, CBRE, or Yardi.
⚠ Not CoStar: All data here is from public Census sources. For underwriting rent levels and supply/demand balance, use CoStar or CBRE market reports alongside this tool.
What it does not provide: Apartment-specific vacancy, asking rents, or supply pipeline data — those require CoStar, CBRE, or Yardi.
⚠ Not CoStar: All data here is from public Census sources. For underwriting rent levels and supply/demand balance, use CoStar or CBRE market reports alongside this tool.
📈 Trend Estimates & Projections
What they are: Simple CAGR extrapolations from the base year to 2025 and 2030. Not econometric forecasts — no mean reversion, cycle adjustment, or macro factors.
For multifamily: Use 2025/2030 population trend as a demand trajectory signal alongside supply pipeline data.
⚠ Don't overread: A 2-year income/HV CAGR extrapolated to 2030 can overshoot dramatically in volatile markets. Projections use raw CAGRs — no caps applied. A high 2-year income/HV CAGR can produce aggressive 2030 numbers in volatile markets; treat with caution and compare to CoStar.
Use for: Directional demand trajectory context — not as a stand-alone rent growth forecast.
For multifamily: Use 2025/2030 population trend as a demand trajectory signal alongside supply pipeline data.
⚠ Don't overread: A 2-year income/HV CAGR extrapolated to 2030 can overshoot dramatically in volatile markets. Projections use raw CAGRs — no caps applied. A high 2-year income/HV CAGR can produce aggressive 2030 numbers in volatile markets; treat with caution and compare to CoStar.
Use for: Directional demand trajectory context — not as a stand-alone rent growth forecast.
General disclaimer: All metrics in this tool are derived from public data sources (US Census ACS & Decennial, OpenStreetMap). They are intended as directional underwriting support — not as a substitute for professional appraisal, market study, or legal review. No proprietary data. No AI-generated demographics. Not investment advice.
CAGR Data Diagnostics
Per-ring availability of each growth rate · populated after running an analysis
Data Transparency & Source Documentation
Every number in RealVal SiteEngine is sourced from a documented public API. No AI estimates any data.
Sources Explicitly NOT Used
AI-Generated Data: No LLM estimates any data in this tool.
Esri Proprietary Data: Esri's current-year estimates use USPS residential delivery counts (ABA), Zonda construction pipeline, and RealPage multifamily data — all proprietary. Their 5-year projections use a cohort survival model we cannot replicate. We use public Census ACS block-group data for all growth controls: Pop/HH CAGR: Decennial 2010→2020 (÷10, exact counts). Inc/HV CAGR: ACS 2019→2024 BG (÷5 ann.). Pop/HH base: Dec2020. Inc/HV base: ACS2024. If matched historical data is insufficient, affected metrics show N/A — no county substitution. Labeled as extrapolated estimates, not official Esri forecasts.
Esri Proprietary Data: Esri's current-year estimates use USPS residential delivery counts (ABA), Zonda construction pipeline, and RealPage multifamily data — all proprietary. Their 5-year projections use a cohort survival model we cannot replicate. We use public Census ACS block-group data for all growth controls: Pop/HH CAGR: Decennial 2010→2020 (÷10, exact counts). Inc/HV CAGR: ACS 2019→2024 BG (÷5 ann.). Pop/HH base: Dec2020. Inc/HV base: ACS2024. If matched historical data is insufficient, affected metrics show N/A — no county substitution. Labeled as extrapolated estimates, not official Esri forecasts.